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MI

McEwen Inc. (MUX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 was operationally mixed: consolidated revenue fell 3% to $50.5M as GEOs sold declined 33%, but higher realized gold prices (+39% YoY) partly offset volumes; net loss narrowed to $0.5M ($0.01/share), and Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $11.8M .
  • Company lowered 2025 production guidance to 112–123k GEOs (from 120–140k) and raised unit cost guidance ranges given Gold Bar model updates and elevated Fox costs; Gold Bar production cut to 32–35k GEOs (from 40–45k) and Fox to 25–28k (from 30–35k) .
  • Strategic progress at Los Azules was significant: RIGI approval (30-year fiscal/regulatory stability) and Feasibility Study with $2.9B NPV(8%), 19.8% IRR, $3.2B capex, C1 $1.71/lb, AISC $2.11/lb (at $4.35/lb Cu) – detailed engineering set to begin; construction targeted for early 2027 subject to financing .
  • The quarter missed S&P Global consensus: revenue $50.5M vs $64.5M estimate*, EPS $0.01 vs $0.28 estimate*; management cited shortfalls at Gold Bar and elevated costs at Fox as drivers, with corrective actions underway and Q4 expected to improve .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Los Azules de-risking: RIGI approval (reduced corporate rate to 25%, dividend withholding cut 50%, accelerated VAT recovery, export duty relief) and robust FS metrics; IFC collaboration for potential future debt/equity financing .
    • Liquidity strengthened: cash $51.2M, marketable securities $24.2M, working capital $62.6M; Adjusted EBITDA up 12% YoY to $11.8M .
    • Exploration/progress: Froome West development enabled initial production; Grey Fox drilling (20.6km in Q3) with high-grade intercepts; Stock ramp on schedule and on budget with $5.7M invested in Q3 .
    • Quote: “We achieved significant strategic progress…published the Feasibility Study for Los Azules, and secured approval for RIGI benefits—providing 30 years of tax and foreign exchange stability…” — Rob McEwen .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Gold Bar underperformance: 8,191 GEOs vs expectation; updated model after reinterpretation of historic drilling drove lower Q3 ore tonnes and higher waste, pushing cash costs/AISC to $2,540/$2,852 per GEO; annual production and unit cost guidance raised/lowered accordingly .
    • Fox cost inflation: cash costs/AISC of $2,132/$2,352 per GEO; elevated contractor and development costs; production guidance lowered to 25–28k GEOs .
    • Consolidated guidance cut: 2025 GEOs guidance to 112–123k and unit cash/AISC ranges increased to $2,028–$2,128 / $2,356–$2,456 per ounce (from $1,543–$1,743 / $1,700–$1,900) .

Financial Results

Summary vs Prior Periods

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)n/a$46.7 $50.5
Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(6.3) $3.0 $(0.5)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.12) $0.06 $(0.01)
Gross Profit ($M)$10.1 $12.3 $7.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$8.7 $17.3 $11.8
Consolidated GEOs24,131 27,554 29,662
Avg Realized Gold Price ($/GEO)n/a$3,298 $3,477

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA as defined by MUX; Q1 revenue/avg price not disclosed in 8-K.

Segment Production & Unit Costs

SegmentMetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Gold Bar (100%)GEOs7,688 8,406 8,190
Cash Cost $/GEO$1,146 $1,679 $2,540
AISC $/GEO$2,197 $1,792 $2,852
Fox Complex (100%)GEOs5,520 5,429 6,377
Cash Cost $/GEO$2,061 $2,212 $2,132
AISC $/GEO$2,504 $2,563 $2,352
San José (49% attr.)GEOs10,924 13,719 14,986
Cash Cost $/GEO$2,575 $2,310 $2,196
AISC $/GEO$3,047 $2,842 $2,771

Balance Sheet & Liquidity KPIs

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$53.6 $51.2
Marketable Securities ($M)$16.0 $24.2
Working Capital ($M)$61.8 $62.6
Total Debt Principal ($M)$130.0 $130.0
Shares Outstanding (M)54.106 54.106

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated Production (GEOs)FY 2025120,000–140,000 112,000–123,000 Lowered
Unit Cash Costs (100% ops)FY 2025$1,543–$1,743/oz (initial) $2,028–$2,128/oz Raised
AISC (100% ops)FY 2025$1,700–$1,900/oz (initial) $2,356–$2,456/oz Raised
Gold Bar Production (GEOs)FY 202540,000–45,000 32,000–35,000 Lowered
Gold Bar Cash/AISC ($/oz)FY 2025$1,500–$1,700 / $1,700–$1,900 $2,050–$2,150 / $2,400–$2,500 Raised
Fox Production (GEOs)FY 202530,000–35,000 25,000–28,000 Lowered
Fox Cash/AISC ($/oz)FY 2025$1,600–$1,800 / $1,700–$1,900 (initial) $2,000–$2,100 / $2,300–$2,400 Raised
San José Production (GEOs)FY 202550,000–60,000 55,000–60,000 Tightened
San José Cash/AISC ($/oz)FY 2025$1,900–$2,100 $1,900–$2,050 / $2,200–$2,350 Updated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Production/CostsQ1: Fox labor/weather headwinds; Gold Bar pre-stripping elevated AISC, improvement expected as Pick III ramps; 2025 GEOs 120–140k reaffirmed . Q2: Costs at 100% ops $1,906/$2,120; production increases expected H2 .Gold Bar model update hurt Q3 ore tonnes; higher waste drove $2,540/$2,852; corrective mine planning in place; Fox costs elevated; consolidated GEO guidance cut .Negative near-term; actions underway; Q4 expected better .
Fox Complex GrowthQ1: Plan to transition Froome→Stock; Stock portal development; Grey Fox PFS expected later in year . Q2: Stock ramp investment; Froome West discovery extends life .Stock ramp on time/budget ($5.7M Q3); Froome West initial production; Grey Fox updated resource in Q4 2025; PFS H1 2026 .Execution progressing; 2026 production pivot intact .
Gold Bar Mine PlanQ1–Q2: Accelerated stripping; H2 production to increase; resource updates for Windfall/Lookout expected .Q3: Reinterpreted geology; updated model; Q4 showing improved compliance; costs expected to fall in Q4; 2025 guidance lowered .Reset with clearer plan; near-term recovery targeted .
Los Azules (Copper)Q1: FS expected summer; RIGI application submitted . Q2: FS late Q3; RIGI revised application .FS published; RIGI approved; IFC collaboration; detailed engineering next; construction targeted early 2027 (financing dependent) .Major de-risking; advancing toward financing/build .
El Gallo (Mexico)Q1: Asset on care/maintenance . Q2: —Construction decision for Phase 1 reprocessing; pending EIA extension; start construction mid-2026; production mid-2027; capex remaining $25M .Reactivation path defined .
Corporate/TechQ1–Q2: Convertible notes ($110M) closed; investments in Goliath/Canadian Gold .31% Paragon Geochemical stake (PhotonAssay) to accelerate assays .Vertical integration in assay capability .

Management Commentary

  • “We encountered operational challenges that led to production below guidance and higher-than-expected costs…We expect these actions to begin delivering positive results in the fourth quarter.” — Rob McEwen, CEO and Chief Owner .
  • “Net loss of $0.5M ($0.01/share)…Adjusted EBITDA $11.8M ($0.22/share)…Cash $51M; $24M marketable securities.” — Perry Ing, CFO (highlights) .
  • “Froome West deposit has kicked in nicely…we see it producing through Q4 and well into 2026; Stock deposit should be coming into production in the first half of next year.” — Bill Shaver, COO .
  • “RIGI…is a fundamental game changer…30 years of legal, fiscal, and customs stability…FS confirms robust economics: $2.9B NPV(8%), 19.8% IRR, $3.2B capex.” — Michael Meding, VP & GM McEwen Copper .

Q&A Highlights

  • Gold Bar geology/mine plan: Management characterized the Q3 shortfall as a sequencing/model issue that has been addressed; normal ore now reconciles to the block model; 2026 plan seen consistent; 2025 guidance updated accordingly .
  • El Gallo (Fenix) timing: Permitting amendments still required; optimistic permits will align to start plant construction in Q1 and proceed to mid-2026/2027 milestones; expect updated financial study after permits .
  • Canadian Gold Corp acquisition: Shareholder vote in December; court ratification targeted early January; PEA targeted Q4 2026 post-close; management asserted fairness and no information asymmetry .
  • Los Azules IPO: Postponed beyond Q4 2025 due to timing; targeting sometime next year; expectation for pricing above last private round ($30/share) upon listing, subject to market .
  • Vertical integration (Paragon): PhotonAssay seen as disruptive for assay turnaround and data quality; management open to further moves that compress time and de-bottleneck supply in mining value chain .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $50.5M vs $64.5M estimate*, Primary EPS $0.01 vs $0.28 estimate*. Q4 2025 forward: Revenue $69.3M estimate*, EPS $0.20 estimate*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Consensus EBITDA context: Q3 “EBITDA” estimate* $28.5M vs actual $2.33M*; company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $11.8M (definitions differ). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Target price consensus: ~$23.2*, 5 estimates*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus*Q4 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($)$50,534,000 $64,479,670*$69,251,000*
Primary EPS ($)$0.0125 $0.2833*$0.1950*
EBITDA ($)$11,815,000 (Adj.) $28,500,000*$20,400,000*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term reset, medium-term build: 2025 production/cost guidance cut/raised on Gold Bar/Fox execution, but Froome West + Stock ramp underpin 2026 production normalization and margin potential .
  • Los Azules materially advanced toward financeable status (RIGI + FS), with detailed engineering next and construction targeted for early 2027, positioning MUX for multi-commodity optionality and potential value crystallization (IPO) in 2026+ .
  • Q3 miss vs consensus creates estimate risk: Street likely to reduce near-term revenue/EPS forecasts and raise cost assumptions until Q4 evidence of improved mine compliance and unit costs emerges; watch Q4 cost/ton and ore reconciliation commentary .
  • Cash/liquidity sufficient to execute 2026 milestones (Stock ramp, Gold Bar heap-leach expansion, El Gallo Phase 1), with El Gallo partly funded via gold prepay and remaining capex ~$25M .
  • Catalysts: Q4 operating traction at Gold Bar/Fox; Grey Fox updated resource (Q4 2025) and PFS (H1 2026); Windfall/Lookout Mountain resource update (H1 2026); Los Azules detailed engineering updates/financing progress; Canadian Gold Corp close (Jan 2026) .
  • Strategic tech investment (Paragon PhotonAssay) aims to compress exploration and development timelines—monitor assay turnaround impact on drilling programs and resource updates .
  • Trading setup: sentiment hinges on execution proof in Q4 and clarity on 2026 ramp; Los Azules de-risking provides a supportive longer-term narrative even as precious metal ops drive near-term P&L .

Appendix: Additional Detail

Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation (Company-reported)

PeriodIncome (Loss) Before Income/Mining Taxes ($000)Dep/Depl ($000)Loss from McEwen Copper ($000)Interest Exp. ($000)Adjusted EBITDA ($000)
Q3 2025(1,731)7,6434,2751,62811,815
Q2 20251,9296,8536,9781,54917,309
Q1 2025(7,349)6,1718,5781,3098,709

Citations:

  • Q3 2025 8-K and Exhibit 99.1:
  • Q3 2025 press release:
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript:
  • Q2 2025 8-K and press release:
  • Q1 2025 8-K and press release:

S&P Global disclaimer: Asterisked estimate values in “Estimates Context” were retrieved from S&P Global.